Guingamp 0-1 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Laval travel to Stade du Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stade du Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Roudourou this season.
Laval — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Laval away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Guingamp, 1 for Laval and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Laval winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Laval in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 48% versus Laval 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 47% | Laval 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.27 xG and Laval 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.937 / defence 1.019 | Laval attack 0.860 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.168. Data: 75 Guingamp games / 75 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 30% | Laval 29%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Laval 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Laval 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 30% | Laval 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Guingamp 1.27 / Laval 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.937 / def 1.019 | Laval attack 0.860 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Laval xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Laval kick off?
Guingamp vs Laval kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Laval?
Guingamp 0 - 1 Laval.
Where is Guingamp vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Laval part of?
Guingamp vs Laval is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 41% chance of winning, Laval a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Guingamp and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Laval?
Record (3 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 0 | Laval 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Laval in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Laval (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (0.94) and Laval's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.35
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.29
1.02
Laval xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.02 for Laval, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 28W 22D 25L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Laval's form line: 28W 14D 33L from 75 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.41 PPG, Laval on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.27 PPG from 37 outings (12W 11D 14L).
On the road, Laval have gone 13W 7D 17L from 37 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.11 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Laval
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Laval in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 28W 22D 25L in their last 75 games (1.41 PPG), while Laval have gone 28W 14D 33L in their last 75 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Laval away?
Guingamp's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.27 PPG; Laval away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Laval in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Laval specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Guingamp
1
Draws
2
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 5, Laval have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Laval 2-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Laval?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 46%, Laval 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Guingamp) and 46% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Laval in 35%; Guingamp have failed to score in 35% of games; Laval in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Guingamp's recent matches and 38% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Guingamp's recent games and 46% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Laval tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Laval in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Laval defy the odds to beat Guingamp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.27 xG and Laval 1.02 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Laval attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 41% | Draw 30% | Laval 29%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Laval win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 47%, Laval 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Laval's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.41 PPG, Laval 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Laval (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.