Auxerre 4-1 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Concarneau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Concarneau meet at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Concarneau (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Concarneau's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Auxerre's 1.90 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Concarneau's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Auxerre lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Concarneau half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 54% versus Concarneau 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 49% | Concarneau 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.85 xG and Concarneau 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.261 / defence 0.753 | Concarneau attack 0.719 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.168. Auxerre carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Auxerre's defence rating of 0.753 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Auxerre games / 37 Concarneau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 66% | Draw 23% | Concarneau 11%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Concarneau 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Concarneau 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 66% | Draw 23% | Concarneau 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 40% | xG Auxerre 1.85 / Concarneau 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.261 / def 0.753 | Concarneau attack 0.719 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Concarneau xG
40%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Concarneau kick off?
Auxerre vs Concarneau kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Concarneau?
Auxerre 4 - 1 Concarneau.
Where is Auxerre vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Concarneau part of?
Auxerre vs Concarneau is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 66% chance of winning, Concarneau a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Auxerre and Concarneau will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Concarneau?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 0 | Concarneau 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Concarneau in?
Auxerre (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Concarneau (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Concarneau's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Concarneau's attack (0.72x) against Auxerre's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
66%
1.52
23%
4.41
11%
8.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.48
0.63
Concarneau xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
8.77
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
2%
55.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.63 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Concarneau?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 20W 11D 6L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Concarneau's form line: 10W 8D 19L from 37 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Concarneau.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 2.11 PPG from 18 outings (11W 5D 2L).
On the road, Concarneau have gone 5W 3D 10L from 18 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 1.03 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Concarneau
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 20W 11D 6L in their last 37 games (1.92 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 10W 8D 19L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Concarneau away?
Auxerre's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.11 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Concarneau in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Auxerre
0
Draws
0
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Concarneau?
From 2 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Concarneau have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Concarneau last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Auxerre 4-1 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Concarneau?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (Auxerre) and 22% (Concarneau) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Auxerre) and 33% (Concarneau).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Concarneau in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Concarneau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Auxerre's recent matches and 22% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Concarneau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Auxerre's recent games and 33% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Concarneau tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Concarneau in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Concarneau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Concarneau 4-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.85 xG and Concarneau 0.63 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.26 / defence 0.75 against Concarneau attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 66% | Draw 23% | Concarneau 11%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 49%, Concarneau 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Concarneau's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Concarneau (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.