Angers 0-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 38 as Angers welcome Dunkerque to Stade Raymond Kopa. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Angers stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Angers at Stade Raymond Kopa this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dunkerque away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Angers 1.80 PPG, Dunkerque 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Angers register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Dunkerque in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Angers, 0 for Dunkerque and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Angers winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Angers in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 46% versus Dunkerque 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 46% | Dunkerque 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.34 xG and Dunkerque 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.125 / defence 1.118 | Dunkerque attack 0.923 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.168. Data: 37 Angers games / 37 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 39% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 33%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Dunkerque 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Angers 70% | Dunkerque 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 39% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Angers 1.34 / Dunkerque 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.125 / def 1.118 | Dunkerque attack 0.923 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Angers (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Dunkerque xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Dunkerque kick off?
Angers vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Dunkerque?
Angers 0 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Angers vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Dunkerque part of?
Angers vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 39% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Angers and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Dunkerque?
Record (1 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Angers and Dunkerque in?
Angers (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.53
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Angers xG
Total xG
2.54
1.21
Dunkerque xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Angers and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Angers and 1.21 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Angers have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 20W 7D 10L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Dunkerque's form line: 12W 9D 16L from 37 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Angers are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dunkerque.
Venue Form
On home soil, Angers have posted 2.33 PPG from 18 outings (13W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Angers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 8W 5D 5L from 18 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.97 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Angers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Current Season
Dunkerque
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 20W 7D 10L in their last 37 games (1.81 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Dunkerque away?
Angers's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 2.33 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Angers or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Angers
1
Draws
0
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Dunkerque?
From 2 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Dunkerque have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Angers 0-0 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Dunkerque?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 44%, Dunkerque 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Angers) and 44% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Dunkerque in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Angers's recent matches and 50% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Angers's recent games and 44% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Angers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers and Dunkerque finished level at 0-0 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.34 xG and Dunkerque 1.21 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Angers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Dunkerque landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.12 / defence 1.12 against Dunkerque attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 39% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 33%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 46%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dunkerque's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.