Quevilly 2-1 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Quevilly host Caen at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Quevilly have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Quevilly's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade Robert Diochon this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Caen stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Caen away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Quevilly) versus 1.80 (Caen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Quevilly have won 1, Caen 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Quevilly winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Caen in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 39% versus Caen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 39% | Caen 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.43 xG and Caen 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.046 / defence 0.944 | Caen attack 0.974 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.046. Data: 67 Quevilly games / 67 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 48% | Draw 27% | Caen 25%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Caen 4.00. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 60% | Caen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 48% | Draw 27% | Caen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Quevilly 1.43 / Caen 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.046 / def 0.944 | Caen attack 0.974 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Caen xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Caen kick off?
Quevilly vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Caen?
Quevilly 2 - 1 Caen.
Where is Quevilly vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Caen part of?
Quevilly vs Caen is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 48% chance of winning, Caen a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Quevilly and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Caen?
Record (3 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 1 | Caen 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Caen in?
Quevilly (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Caen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (1.05) and Caen's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.67
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.39
0.96
Caen xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
6%
16.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.96 for Caen, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Quevilly come into this having played 67 games, going 21W 18D 28L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Caen sit at 1.43 PPG from 67 outings (25W 21D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.21 PPG, Caen on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Quevilly's home form reads 10W 13D 10L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Caen have taken 1.03 points per game from 33 outings (7W 13D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.30 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Caen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Caen in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 21W 18D 28L in their last 67 games (1.21 PPG), while Caen have gone 25W 21D 21L in their last 67 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Caen away?
Quevilly's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.30 PPG; Caen away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Quevilly and Caen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Quevilly's record when hosting Caen specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Quevilly
2
Draws
2
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Caen?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Caen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Quevilly 1-2 Caen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Caen see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 52%, Caen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Quevilly) and 36% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Quevilly keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Quevilly have failed to score in 33% of games; Caen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Quevilly's recent matches and 54% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Quevilly's recent games and 36% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Caen tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Caen in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Quevilly edge out Caen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Caen 2-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.43 xG and Caen 0.96 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Caen attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 48% | Draw 27% | Caen 25%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 39%, Caen 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Caen's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.21 PPG, Caen 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.