Annecy 2-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Annecy host Valenciennes at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Annecy's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Parc des Sports this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.
Valenciennes — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Valenciennes's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 0.90 PPG, Valenciennes 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Annecy, 0 for Valenciennes and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Valenciennes trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 38% versus Valenciennes 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 41% | Valenciennes 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.30 xG and Valenciennes 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.868 / defence 0.999 | Valenciennes attack 0.815 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.053. Valenciennes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Annecy games / 67 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 47% | Draw 29% | Valenciennes 24%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Valenciennes 4.17. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 30% | Valenciennes 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 47% | Draw 29% | Valenciennes 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Annecy 1.30 / Valenciennes 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.868 / def 0.999 | Valenciennes attack 0.815 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Annecy (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Valenciennes xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Valenciennes kick off?
Annecy vs Valenciennes kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Valenciennes?
Annecy 2 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is Annecy vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Valenciennes part of?
Annecy vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 47% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Annecy and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Valenciennes?
Record (1 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 1 | Valenciennes 0W.
What form are Annecy and Valenciennes in?
Annecy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.87) and Valenciennes's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valenciennes's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.50
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.16
0.86
Valenciennes xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
7%
15.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Annecy and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Annecy and 0.86 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 8W 9D 12L from 29 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Valenciennes, meanwhile, have gone 7W 12D 10L across 29 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.14 PPG, Valenciennes on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 6W 3D 5L from 14 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valenciennes's away record stands at 2W 3D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valenciennes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 1.10 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Valenciennes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 8W 9D 12L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 7W 12D 10L in their last 29 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Valenciennes away?
Annecy's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.50 PPG; Valenciennes away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Annecy or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Valenciennes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Annecy's record when hosting Valenciennes specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Annecy
2
Draws
0
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Valenciennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Valenciennes have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Annecy 2-1 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Valenciennes?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Annecy 29% BTTS, Valenciennes 36%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Annecy and 29% for Valenciennes.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 43% of games; Valenciennes in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Annecy's recent matches and 36% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Annecy's recent games and 29% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out Valenciennes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Valenciennes 2-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.30 xG and Valenciennes 0.86 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Valenciennes attack 0.81 / defence 1.22, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 47% | Draw 29% | Valenciennes 24%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 41%, Valenciennes 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Valenciennes's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.14 PPG, Valenciennes 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.