Le Havre 0-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Océane to take on Le Havre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 April 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Le Havre at 1.80 PPG versus Guingamp's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Le Havre have won 1, Guingamp 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Le Havre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 42% versus Guingamp 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 33% | Guingamp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.21 xG and Guingamp 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.046 / defence 0.826 | Guingamp attack 1.051 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.046. Data: 67 Le Havre games / 67 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 43% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 27%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Guingamp 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 30% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 43% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Le Havre 1.21 / Guingamp 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.046 / def 0.826 | Guingamp attack 1.051 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Guingamp xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Guingamp kick off?
Le Havre vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Guingamp?
Le Havre 0 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Le Havre vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Guingamp part of?
Le Havre vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 43% chance of winning, Guingamp a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Le Havre and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Guingamp in?
Le Havre (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 1.05x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.35
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.12
0.91
Guingamp xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.91 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre's recent record stands at 29W 23D 15L from 67 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 25W 21D 21L across 67 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.64 PPG, Guingamp on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 15W 10D 8L from 33 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 12W 12D 9L across 33 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.31 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 29W 23D 15L in their last 67 games (1.64 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 25W 21D 21L in their last 67 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Guingamp away?
Le Havre's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.67 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Guingamp in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Le Havre's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Le Havre
2
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Guingamp have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Le Havre 0-0 Guingamp.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 42%, Guingamp 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Le Havre) and 39% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 27% of games; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Le Havre's recent matches and 54% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Le Havre's recent games and 39% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Guingamp tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Le Havre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 30, as Le Havre and Guingamp drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.21 xG and Guingamp 0.91 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Guingamp landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.05 / defence 0.83 against Guingamp attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 43% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 27%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 33%, Guingamp 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.64 PPG, Guingamp 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.