Rodez 1-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Quevilly make the trip to Stade Paul Lignon to face Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Rodez (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Paul Lignon, Rodez have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Quevilly have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Rodez against 1.40 for Quevilly. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Rodez 1W, Quevilly 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Quevilly — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 42% versus Quevilly 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 30% | Quevilly 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.97 xG and Quevilly 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.912 / defence 1.266 | Quevilly attack 0.806 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.043. Data: 66 Rodez games / 66 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 31% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 36%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Quevilly 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 60% | Quevilly 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 31% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Rodez 0.97 / Quevilly 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.912 / def 1.266 | Quevilly attack 0.806 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Quevilly xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Quevilly kick off?
Rodez vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Quevilly?
Rodez 1 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Rodez vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Quevilly part of?
Rodez vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 31% chance of winning, Quevilly a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Rodez and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Quevilly?
Record (3 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 1W.
What form are Rodez and Quevilly in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Quevilly (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.91x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.81x) against Rodez's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
31%
3.19
32%
3.09
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.04
1.06
Quevilly xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.9 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Rodez and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Rodez and 1.06 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rodez come into this having played 66 games, going 17W 23D 26L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.23 PPG from 66 outings (21W 18D 27L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Rodez against 1.23 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rodez's home form reads 6W 14D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.09 points per game from 32 outings (10W 5D 17L).
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.98 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Quevilly
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 17W 23D 26L in their last 66 games (1.12 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 21W 18D 27L in their last 66 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Quevilly away?
Quevilly's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.00 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 3-0 on 30 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rodez
2
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Quevilly have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Rodez 3-3 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 50%, Quevilly 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Rodez and 34% for Quevilly.
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 38% of games; Quevilly in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rodez's recent matches and 25% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Rodez's recent games and 34% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Quevilly tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Quevilly 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Quevilly 1-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.97 xG and Quevilly 1.06 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Quevilly landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.91 / defence 1.27 against Quevilly attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 31% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 36%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 30%, Quevilly 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Quevilly's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.12 PPG, Quevilly 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.