Niort 0-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Guingamp at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Niort vs Guingamp encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Niort welcome Guingamp to Stade René Gaillard in Ligue 2 (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 1 October 2022 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Niort — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

Niort at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Guingamp have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Guingamp away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guingamp — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Niort's games and 70% of Guingamp's (from Niort's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Niort, 1 for Guingamp and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2022, ended Niort 0–1 Guingamp — a Guingamp win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Niort in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 39% versus Guingamp 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 44% | Guingamp 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.27 xG and Guingamp 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.831 / defence 1.138 | Guingamp attack 1.446 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.169. Guingamp's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Niort's projected output up. Guingamp have an above-average attack rating of 1.446, which lifts their away xG to 1.92. Data: built from Niort's last 47 games and Guingamp's last 46.

Result probabilities: Niort 25% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 53%. Fair-value odds: Niort 3.97 | Draw 4.51 | Guingamp 1.90. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.27 / 1.92) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Niort's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Niort 60% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 70% (last 10 away games).

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