Metz 1-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Metz at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees PAU travel to Stade Saint-Symphorien to take on Metz. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Metz — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade Saint-Symphorien this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAU have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Metz 1.10 PPG, PAU 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Metz in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
PAU in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 49% versus PAU 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 51% | PAU 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.46 xG and PAU 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 1.091 / defence 1.376 | PAU attack 0.854 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.169. Data: 9 Metz games / 47 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 39% | Draw 25% | PAU 36%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | PAU 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Metz are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Metz 50% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 39% | Draw 25% | PAU 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Metz 1.46 / PAU 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 1.091 / def 1.376 | PAU attack 0.854 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Metz (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.37
PAU xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs PAU kick off?
Metz vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs PAU?
Metz 1 - 0 PAU.
Where is Metz vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs PAU part of?
Metz vs PAU is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 39% chance of winning, PAU a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Metz and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Metz and PAU in?
Metz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. PAU (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Metz's attack rating (1.09) and PAU's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
39%
2.54
25%
3.99
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Metz xG
Total xG
2.83
1.37
PAU xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Metz and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Metz and 1.37 for PAU, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Metz have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 9W 15D 23L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU's form line: 16W 11D 20L from 47 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metz on 0.89 PPG, PAU on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Metz have posted 0.96 PPG from 24 outings (5W 8D 11L).
On the road, PAU have gone 5W 7D 12L from 24 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Metz are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.02 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and PAU in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 9W 15D 23L in their last 47 games (0.89 PPG), while PAU have gone 16W 11D 20L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or PAU away?
Metz's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 0.96 PPG; PAU away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Metz and PAU runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Metz's record when hosting PAU specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Metz
2
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Metz have won 1, PAU have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Metz and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when PAU 2-1 Metz.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
PAU see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 54%, PAU 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Metz) and 46% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Metz have failed to score in 33% of games; PAU in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Metz's recent matches and 54% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Metz's recent games and 46% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and PAU tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PAU in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Metz edge out PAU 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat PAU 1-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.46 xG and PAU 1.37 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PAU landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.09 / defence 1.38 against PAU attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 39% | Draw 25% | PAU 36%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 51%, PAU 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
PAU's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 0.89 PPG, PAU 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.