Dijon 0-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 1 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Dijon (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon at Stade Gaston-Gérard this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Le Havre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Le Havre are 0.60 PPG clear of Dijon in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Dijon 1W, Le Havre 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Dijon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dijon — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Le Havre — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 53% versus Le Havre 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 53% | Le Havre 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 0.92 xG and Le Havre 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.928 / defence 1.196 | Le Havre attack 1.299 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.169. Le Havre's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Le Havre have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Dijon games / 47 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 19% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 58%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Le Havre 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 50% | Le Havre 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 19% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Dijon 0.92 / Le Havre 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.928 / def 1.196 | Le Havre attack 1.299 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Le Havre xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Le Havre kick off?
Dijon vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Le Havre?
Dijon 0 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Dijon vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Le Havre part of?
Dijon vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 19% chance of winning, Le Havre a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dijon and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Le Havre?
Record (2 meetings): Dijon 1W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Dijon and Le Havre in?
Dijon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Le Havre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dijon's attack rating (0.93) and Le Havre's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (1.30x) against Dijon's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
19%
5.31
23%
4.39
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.74
1.82
Le Havre xG
5.31
19%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
3%
32.61
23%
4.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Dijon and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Dijon and 1.82 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 16W 10D 21L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre's form line: 18W 14D 15L from 47 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Dijon against 1.45 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 10W 6D 7L from 23 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dijon are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.15 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 16W 10D 21L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 18W 14D 15L in their last 47 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.48 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Dijon or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Le Havre in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dijon
1
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Le Havre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2023, when Le Havre 1-0 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 48%, Le Havre 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Dijon) and 44% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 44%; Dijon have failed to score in 26% of games; Le Havre in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Dijon's recent matches and 39% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Dijon's recent games and 44% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Le Havre tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dijon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon and Le Havre finished level at 0-0 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 0.92 xG and Le Havre 1.82 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dijon fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Le Havre landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.93 / defence 1.20 against Le Havre attack 1.30 / defence 0.79, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 19% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 58%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 53%, Le Havre 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Le Havre's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.23 PPG, Le Havre 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.