Guingamp 0-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Guingamp welcome Rodez to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 4 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rodez — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Guingamp have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Guingamp, 0 for Rodez and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Rodez trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 62% versus Rodez 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 53% | Rodez 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.22 xG and Rodez 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.192 / defence 0.916 | Rodez attack 0.958 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.137. Data: 47 Guingamp games / 47 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 29% | Rodez 30%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Rodez 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 70% | Rodez 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 29% | Rodez 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Guingamp 1.22 / Rodez 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.192 / def 0.916 | Rodez attack 0.958 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Rodez xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Rodez kick off?
Guingamp vs Rodez kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 4 October 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Rodez?
Guingamp 0 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Guingamp vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Rodez part of?
Guingamp vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 41% chance of winning, Rodez a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Guingamp and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Rodez?
Record (2 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 1 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Rodez in?
Guingamp (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Rodez (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.48
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.22
1.00
Rodez xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.00 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp's recent record stands at 20W 15D 12L from 47 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 19L across 47 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guingamp by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rodez heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 11W 7D 5L from 23 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 7W 5D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.85 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Rodez in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 20W 15D 12L in their last 47 games (1.60 PPG), while Rodez have gone 12W 16D 19L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Rodez away?
Guingamp's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.74 PPG; Rodez away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Rodez in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
5
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Rodez have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Guingamp 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Rodez?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 74%, Rodez 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Guingamp) and 30% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Rodez in 35%; Rodez in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 74% of Guingamp's recent matches and 30% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Guingamp's recent games and 30% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Rodez tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Rodez in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Guingamp's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp and Rodez finished level at 0-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.22 xG and Rodez 1.00 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Rodez landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.19 / defence 0.92 against Rodez attack 0.96 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 41% | Draw 29% | Rodez 30%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 53%, Rodez 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Rodez's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.