Nimes 1-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 37%, yet in-form Bordeaux provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nimes vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bordeaux make the trip to Stade des Costières to face Nimes in Ligue 2 (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Nimes's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Nimes at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Nimes are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bordeaux (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bordeaux away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Bordeaux arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Nimes — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 49% versus Bordeaux 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 51% | Bordeaux 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 0.97 xG and Bordeaux 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.833 / defence 0.798 | Bordeaux attack 1.005 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.059. Nimes have a tight defence (rating 0.798), which is pulling Bordeaux's projected output down. Data: built from Nimes's last 51 games and Bordeaux's last 13.
Result probabilities: Nimes 37% | Draw 33% | Bordeaux 30%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 2.71 | Draw 3.07 | Bordeaux 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Bordeaux's lower xG of 0.85 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nimes are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bordeaux (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nimes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Nimes's last 10 home games and Bordeaux's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nimes 20% (last 10 home games) | Bordeaux 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 5 November 2022 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 37% | Draw 33% | Bordeaux 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Nimes 0.97 / Bordeaux 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.833 / def 0.798 | Bordeaux attack 1.005 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Nimes (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Bordeaux xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nimes vs Bordeaux FAQs
What time does Nimes vs Bordeaux kick off?
Nimes vs Bordeaux kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Bordeaux?
Nimes 1 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Nimes vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Bordeaux part of?
Nimes vs Bordeaux is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 14) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 37% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Nimes and Bordeaux will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Nimes vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nimes's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Bordeaux's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (1.00x) against Nimes's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Nimes's last 51 games and Bordeaux's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
37%
2.71
33%
3.07
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Nimes xG
Total xG
1.82
0.85
Bordeaux xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nimes vs Bordeaux Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Nimes and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Nimes and 0.85 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nimes's recent record stands at 17W 9D 25L from 51 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 21L across 51 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Nimes against 1.14 for Bordeaux. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nimes have managed 9W 5D 11L from their last 25 home games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bordeaux's away record stands at 6W 8D 11L across their last 25 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nimes are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.39 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
Nimes (Home) vs Bordeaux (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nimes
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Nimes vs Bordeaux Form FAQs
What form are Nimes and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 17W 9D 25L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 14W 16D 21L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Bordeaux away?
Nimes's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.28 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 18 March 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nimes
0
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Nimes vs Bordeaux H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Bordeaux?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Nimes have won 1, Bordeaux have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Bordeaux last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 March 2023: Bordeaux 1-0 Nimes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nimes see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 48%, Bordeaux 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Nimes and 76% for Bordeaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 40% of games; Bordeaux in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nimes vs Bordeaux Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nimes and Bordeaux matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Nimes's games and 64% of Bordeaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Nimes and Bordeaux matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Nimes's matches and 76% of Bordeaux's.
Do Nimes and Bordeaux matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Nimes's recent matches and 84% of Bordeaux's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nimes edge out Bordeaux 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Bordeaux 1-0 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 0.97 xG and Bordeaux 0.85 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bordeaux landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.83 / defence 0.80 against Bordeaux attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 37% | Draw 33% | Bordeaux 30%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 51%, Bordeaux 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Bordeaux's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.18 PPG, Bordeaux 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nimes win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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