Bastia 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Paris FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Paris FC travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's home record at Stade Armand-Césari: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Bastia) versus 1.20 (Paris FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bastia, 1 for Paris FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Bastia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Paris FC trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 45% versus Paris FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 33% | Paris FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.80 xG and Paris FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.905 / defence 0.909 | Paris FC attack 1.034 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.051. Paris FC's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Bastia games / 51 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 29% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Paris FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Bastia's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 40% | Paris FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 29% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Bastia 0.80 / Paris FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.905 / def 0.909 | Paris FC attack 1.034 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Paris FC xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Paris FC kick off?
Bastia vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Paris FC?
Bastia 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Bastia vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Paris FC part of?
Bastia vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 29% chance of winning, Paris FC a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Bastia and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Paris FC?
Record (2 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 0 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are Bastia and Paris FC in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Paris FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.91x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
29%
3.50
33%
3.05
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.79
0.99
Paris FC xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 16.5 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Bastia and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Bastia and 0.99 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bastia come into this having played 51 games, going 15W 19D 17L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.65 PPG from 51 outings (23W 15D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.25 PPG, Paris FC on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bastia's home form reads 8W 13D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.56 points per game from 25 outings (11W 6D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.24 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Paris FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 15W 19D 17L in their last 51 games (1.25 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 23W 15D 13L in their last 51 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.48 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Bastia or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Paris FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Paris FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
1
Draws
4
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Paris FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 40%, Paris FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Bastia and 40% for Paris FC.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Paris FC in 32%; Bastia have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Bastia's recent matches and 52% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Bastia's recent games and 40% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Bastia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Bastia 0-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.80 xG and Paris FC 0.99 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bastia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.91 / defence 0.91 against Paris FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.75, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 29% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 39%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 33%, Paris FC 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.25 PPG, Paris FC 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.