Metz 0-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Metz at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Metz vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Annecy make the trip to Stade Saint-Symphorien to face Metz in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 2 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Metz have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Metz have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Metz's home record at Stade Saint-Symphorien: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Annecy (all games): 1W 2D 3L across 6 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.83 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.83 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.87 in Metz's favour (1.70 vs 0.83) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Metz half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 50% versus Annecy 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 67% | Annecy 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.42 xG and Annecy 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 1.170 / defence 1.016 | Annecy attack 0.933 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.141. Data: 6 Metz games / 6 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 44% | Draw 28% | Annecy 28%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Metz at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Metz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Metz 40% | Annecy 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 44% | Draw 28% | Annecy 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Metz 1.42 / Annecy 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 1.170 / def 1.016 | Annecy attack 0.933 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Metz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Annecy xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Annecy kick off?
Metz vs Annecy kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Annecy?
Metz 0 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Metz vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Annecy part of?
Metz vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 44% chance of winning, Annecy a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Metz and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Annecy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Metz and Annecy in?
Metz (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Annecy (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Metz's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.93x) against Metz's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.59
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Metz xG
Total xG
2.50
1.08
Annecy xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Metz and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Metz and 1.08 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Metz's recent record stands at 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Metz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 3L across 6 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Metz by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Annecy heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Metz have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.83 PPG overall record — Annecy travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Metz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Metz are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 0.83 scored and 1.00 conceded. Metz's scoring rate against Annecy's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Annecy in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Annecy have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Annecy away?
Metz's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 2.00 PPG; Annecy away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Metz or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Annecy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Metz won 5-1 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Metz have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Metz
2
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Annecy?
From 4 meetings on record, Metz have won 2, Annecy have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Metz 5-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Annecy?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Metz) and 33% (Annecy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Metz) and 33% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Annecy in 33%; Annecy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Metz's recent matches and 33% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Metz's recent games and 33% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Annecy tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Annecy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Metz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz and Annecy finished level at 0-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.42 xG and Annecy 1.08 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Metz fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Annecy landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.17 / defence 1.02 against Annecy attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 44% | Draw 28% | Annecy 28%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 67%, Annecy 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Annecy's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.