Dijon 0-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dijon at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dijon host Annecy at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 30 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dijon's home record at Stade Gaston-Gérard: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Annecy — All Games: 0W 2D 3L from 5 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Dijon have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Dijon in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games.
Annecy in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 80% and Annecy 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 80% | Annecy 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.66 xG and Annecy 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.223 / defence 1.124 | Annecy attack 0.870 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.101. Data: 43 Dijon games / 5 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 51% | Draw 25% | Annecy 24%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Annecy 4.17. Dijon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 50% | Annecy 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 51% | Draw 25% | Annecy 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Dijon 1.66 / Annecy 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.223 / def 1.124 | Annecy attack 0.870 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Dijon (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Annecy xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Annecy kick off?
Dijon vs Annecy kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Annecy?
Dijon 0 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Dijon vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Annecy part of?
Dijon vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 51% chance of winning, Annecy a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dijon and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Annecy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Annecy in?
Dijon (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Annecy (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.22) and Annecy's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
51%
1.98
25%
3.97
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.73
1.08
Annecy xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
5%
21.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Dijon and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Dijon and 1.08 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dijon come into this having played 5 games, going 3W 2D 0L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 0.40 PPG from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dijon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.80 PPG clear of Annecy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Annecy in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 games (2.20 PPG), while Annecy have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dijon
1
Draws
1
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Annecy?
From 2 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, Annecy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Annecy 1-1 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 80%, Annecy 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Dijon and 40% for Annecy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Annecy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Dijon's games and 40% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Dijon's matches and 40% of Annecy's.
Do Dijon and Annecy tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Annecy in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dijon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Dijon 0-2 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.66 xG and Annecy 1.08 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dijon fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Annecy outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.22 / defence 1.12 against Annecy attack 0.87 / defence 1.19, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 51% | Draw 25% | Annecy 24%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 80%, Annecy 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Annecy's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dijon arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.40. Form was overturned, with Annecy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dijon managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.