Guingamp 3-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host Amiens at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Guingamp's home record at Stade du Roudourou: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Roudourou this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.20 PPG, Amiens 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Guingamp, 2 for Amiens and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Amiens trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 59% versus Amiens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 47% | Amiens 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.33 xG and Amiens 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.917 / defence 1.239 | Amiens attack 0.943 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.046. Data: 68 Guingamp games / 68 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 27% | Amiens 34%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Amiens 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Amiens 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 27% | Amiens 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Guingamp 1.33 / Amiens 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.917 / def 1.239 | Amiens attack 0.943 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Amiens xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Amiens kick off?
Guingamp vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Guingamp 3 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Guingamp vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Amiens part of?
Guingamp vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 39% chance of winning, Amiens a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Guingamp and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Amiens?
Record (3 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 1 | Amiens 2W.
What form are Guingamp and Amiens in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Amiens (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guingamp's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.74
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.55
1.22
Amiens xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
9%
11.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.22 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 68 games, going 25W 22D 21L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.24 PPG from 68 outings (20W 24D 24L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.43 PPG, Amiens on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 13W 9D 12L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 0.97 points per game from 34 outings (6W 15D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.10 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Amiens in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 25W 22D 21L in their last 68 games (1.43 PPG), while Amiens have gone 20W 24D 24L in their last 68 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Amiens away?
Guingamp's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.41 PPG; Amiens away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Amiens in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Amiens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Amiens have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 65%, Amiens 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Guingamp) and 35% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Amiens in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Amiens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Guingamp's games and 56% of Amiens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Guingamp's recent games and 35% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Amiens tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Amiens in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Amiens 3-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.33 xG and Amiens 1.22 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.92 / defence 1.24 against Amiens attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 39% | Draw 27% | Amiens 34%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 47%, Amiens 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.43 PPG, Amiens 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.