Guingamp vs Dunkerque – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Dunkerque meet at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Dunkerque have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Guingamp 4W, Dunkerque 3W, 2D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dunkerque — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 54% versus Dunkerque 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 58% | Dunkerque 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.85 xG and Dunkerque 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.050 / defence 1.181 | Dunkerque attack 1.114 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Guingamp games / 43 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 23% | Dunkerque 36%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Dunkerque 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Dunkerque 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 5 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 23% | Dunkerque 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Guingamp 1.85 / Dunkerque 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.050 / def 1.181 | Dunkerque attack 1.114 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Dunkerque xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Dunkerque kick off?
Guingamp vs Dunkerque is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 February 2027 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Dunkerque part of?
Guingamp vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 41% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Guingamp and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
Record (9 meetings): Guingamp 4W | Draws 2 | Dunkerque 3W.
What form are Guingamp and Dunkerque in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.05) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (1.11x) against Guingamp's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
41%
2.43
23%
4.40
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.59
1.73
Dunkerque xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
7%
13.75
6%
17.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.73 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 12D 19L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dunkerque sit at 1.26 PPG from 43 outings (14W 12D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Guingamp against 1.26 for Dunkerque. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Guingamp's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Dunkerque have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (7W 4D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.53 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dunkerque in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 14W 12D 17L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Dunkerque away?
Guingamp's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.38 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
3
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
From 9 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Dunkerque have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Dunkerque 0-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 43%, Dunkerque 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Guingamp) and 67% (Dunkerque). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 29% of games; Dunkerque in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Guingamp's recent matches and 67% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Guingamp's matches and 67% of Dunkerque's.
Do Guingamp and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.