Laval 0-3 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Laval at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Laval vs Concarneau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Laval host Concarneau at Stade Francis Le Basser in Ligue 2 (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Laval — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Laval have posted 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Concarneau stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Concarneau have posted 2W 1D 3L from their last 6 away outings — 1.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Laval have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Laval in-play and half-time data (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 20% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Concarneau in-play and half-time data (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 33% of Laval's games and 33% of Concarneau's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Laval 42% | Concarneau 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.28 xG and Concarneau 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.940 / defence 0.797 | Concarneau attack 0.725 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.119. Concarneau's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Laval have a tight defence (rating 0.797), which is pulling Concarneau's projected output down. Data: built from Laval's last 51 games and Concarneau's last 12.
Result probabilities: Laval 52% | Draw 30% | Concarneau 18%. Fair-value odds: Laval 1.94 | Draw 3.34 | Concarneau 5.41. Laval hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Concarneau's lower xG of 0.65 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Laval at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Laval's last 10 home games and Concarneau's last 6 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Laval 50% (last 10 home games) | Concarneau 17% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 52% | Draw 30% | Concarneau 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Laval 1.28 / Concarneau 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.940 / def 0.797 | Concarneau attack 0.725 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Laval (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Laval xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Concarneau xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Laval vs Concarneau FAQs
What time does Laval vs Concarneau kick off?
Laval vs Concarneau kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Concarneau?
Laval 0 - 3 Concarneau.
Where is Laval vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Concarneau part of?
Laval vs Concarneau is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 14) (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 52% chance of winning, Concarneau a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Laval and Concarneau will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Laval vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Laval's attack rating (0.94) and Concarneau's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Concarneau's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Laval's last 51 games and Concarneau's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
52%
1.94
30%
3.34
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Laval xG
Total xG
1.93
0.65
Concarneau xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
5%
19.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Laval vs Concarneau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Laval and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Laval and 0.65 for Concarneau, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Laval's recent record stands at 8W 2D 2L from 12 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Concarneau, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 5L across 12 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Laval by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Concarneau heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Laval have managed 4W 0D 1L from their last 5 home games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Concarneau's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across their last 5 away games, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Laval are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 0.92 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Laval have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
Laval (Home) vs Concarneau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Laval
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
❓ Laval vs Concarneau Form FAQs
What form are Laval and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 8W 2D 2L in their last 12 games (2.17 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Concarneau away?
Laval's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 2.40 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Laval or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Concarneau in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Laval
0
Draws
1
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Laval vs Concarneau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Concarneau?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Laval have won 1, Concarneau have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Concarneau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Concarneau 1-3 Laval.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Laval's games tend to start slowly — only 20% have a goal by half-time.
Concarneau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Laval 40% BTTS, Concarneau 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Laval) and 40% (Concarneau).
On the defensive side: Laval keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Concarneau in 40%; Concarneau in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Laval vs Concarneau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Laval and Concarneau matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Laval's recent matches and 20% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Laval and Concarneau matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Laval's recent games and 40% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Concarneau matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 20% of Laval's recent matches and 60% of Concarneau's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Concarneau run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concarneau beat Laval 0-3 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.28 xG and Concarneau 0.65 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Laval fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Concarneau outscored their 0.65 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against Concarneau attack 0.72 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 52% | Draw 30% | Concarneau 18%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Concarneau win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 42%, Concarneau 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Concarneau's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Laval arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Concarneau winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Concarneau (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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