Paris FC 1-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Paris FC face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Bastia at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2 (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Paris FC stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Paris FC have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Paris FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Bastia have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bastia away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Paris FC 1.40 PPG, Bastia 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Paris FC have won 2, Bastia 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Paris FC 0–1 Bastia — a Bastia win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bastia trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 45% versus Bastia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 47% | Bastia 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.30 xG and Bastia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.030 / defence 1.041 | Bastia attack 0.784 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.119. Bastia's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Paris FC's last 51 games and Bastia's last 51.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 45% | Draw 29% | Bastia 26%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.21 | Draw 3.46 | Bastia 3.88. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris FC 20% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 45% | Draw 29% | Bastia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Paris FC 1.30 / Bastia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.030 / def 1.041 | Bastia attack 0.784 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Bastia xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Bastia FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Bastia kick off?
Paris FC vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Bastia?
Paris FC 1 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Paris FC vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Bastia part of?
Paris FC vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 14) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 45% chance of winning, Bastia a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Paris FC and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Paris FC vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.03) and Bastia's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 51 games and Bastia's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.46
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.22
0.91
Bastia xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.91 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris FC come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 12D 20L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.49 PPG from 51 outings (21W 13D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.35 PPG, Bastia on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Paris FC's home form reads 10W 4D 11L across their last 25 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 25 away games (6W 8D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Bastia
Blended
Paris FC (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Paris FC vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Bastia in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 19W 12D 20L in their last 51 games (1.35 PPG), while Bastia have gone 21W 13D 17L in their last 51 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Bastia away?
Paris FC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.36 PPG; Bastia away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bastia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris FC's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Paris FC
1
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Bastia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 4, Bastia have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2025: Paris FC 1-0 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Bastia?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 40%, Bastia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Paris FC) and 40% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Paris FC have failed to score in 32% of games; Bastia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Bastia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Paris FC's recent matches and 48% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Paris FC and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Paris FC's recent games and 40% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Paris FC's recent matches and 64% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Bastia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Bastia 1-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.30 xG and Bastia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bastia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Bastia attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 45% | Draw 29% | Bastia 26%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 47%, Bastia 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bastia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.35 PPG, Bastia 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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