Paris FC 1-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Bastia at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Charléty, Paris FC have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Charléty. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Paris FC are significantly better at Stade Charléty than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Paris FC 1.40 PPG, Bastia 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Paris FC have won 2, Bastia 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Bastia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bastia trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 45% versus Bastia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 47% | Bastia 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.30 xG and Bastia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.030 / defence 1.041 | Bastia attack 0.784 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.119. Data: 51 Paris FC games / 51 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 45% | Draw 29% | Bastia 26%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Bastia 3.85. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 20% | Bastia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 45% | Draw 29% | Bastia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Paris FC 1.30 / Bastia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.030 / def 1.041 | Bastia attack 0.784 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Bastia xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Bastia kick off?
Paris FC vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Bastia?
Paris FC 1 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Paris FC vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Bastia part of?
Paris FC vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 45% chance of winning, Bastia a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Paris FC and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Bastia?
Record (4 meetings): Paris FC 2W | Draws 0 | Bastia 2W.
What form are Paris FC and Bastia in?
Paris FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Bastia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.03) and Bastia's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.46
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.22
0.91
Bastia xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.91 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris FC come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 12D 20L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.49 PPG from 51 outings (21W 13D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.35 PPG, Bastia on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Paris FC's home form reads 10W 4D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 1.04 points per game from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Bastia in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 19W 12D 20L in their last 51 games (1.35 PPG), while Bastia have gone 21W 13D 17L in their last 51 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Bastia away?
Paris FC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.36 PPG; Bastia away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bastia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris FC's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Paris FC
1
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 4, Bastia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Bastia?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 40%, Bastia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Paris FC) and 40% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Paris FC have failed to score in 32% of games; Bastia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Paris FC's recent matches and 48% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Paris FC's recent games and 40% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Bastia tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bastia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Bastia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Bastia 1-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.30 xG and Bastia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bastia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Bastia attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 45% | Draw 29% | Bastia 26%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 47%, Bastia 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bastia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.35 PPG, Bastia 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.