Annecy 1-3 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Laval at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Annecy welcome Laval to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Laval have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Laval are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Annecy, 1 for Laval and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Laval in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 44% versus Laval 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 48% | Laval 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.89 xG and Laval 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.977 / defence 1.065 | Laval attack 0.880 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.103. Laval's defence strength of 0.723 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Annecy games / 50 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 30% | Draw 32% | Laval 38%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Laval 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Laval at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 50% | Laval 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 30% | Draw 32% | Laval 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Annecy 0.89 / Laval 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.977 / def 1.065 | Laval attack 0.880 / def 0.723 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Laval (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Laval xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Laval kick off?
Annecy vs Laval kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Laval?
Annecy 1 - 3 Laval.
Where is Annecy vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Laval part of?
Annecy vs Laval is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 30% chance of winning, Laval a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Annecy and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Laval?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 1 | Laval 1W.
What form are Annecy and Laval in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Laval (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.98x the league average against Laval's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
30%
3.32
32%
3.11
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.93
1.03
Laval xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 15.1 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Annecy and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Annecy and 1.03 for Laval, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 14W 18D 18L from 50 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 22W 6D 22L across 50 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.20 PPG, Laval on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 10W 8D 7L from 25 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Laval's away record stands at 8W 4D 13L across 25 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.14 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Laval in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 14W 18D 18L in their last 50 games (1.20 PPG), while Laval have gone 22W 6D 22L in their last 50 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Laval away?
Annecy's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.52 PPG; Laval away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Annecy or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Laval in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Laval runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Annecy won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Laval specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
3
Draws
2
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, Laval have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Laval 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Laval?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 40%, Laval 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Annecy) and 48% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Laval in 40%; Annecy have failed to score in 32% of games; Laval in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Annecy's recent matches and 36% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Annecy's recent games and 48% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Laval tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Laval in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Laval cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Annecy 1-3 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.89 xG and Laval 1.03 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Laval outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Laval attack 0.88 / defence 0.72, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 30% | Draw 32% | Laval 38%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 48%, Laval 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Laval's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.20 PPG, Laval 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Laval (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.