Guingamp 4-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host PAU at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp at Stade du Roudourou this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.70 PPG, PAU 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 2, PAU 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Guingamp in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
PAU in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 54% versus PAU 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 44% | PAU 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.24 xG and PAU 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.929 / defence 1.059 | PAU attack 0.974 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 0.979. Data: 41 Guingamp games / 41 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 29% | PAU 30%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | PAU 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 60% | PAU 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 29% | PAU 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Guingamp 1.24 / PAU 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.929 / def 1.059 | PAU attack 0.974 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.215 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.01
PAU xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs PAU kick off?
Guingamp vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs PAU?
Guingamp 4 - 0 PAU.
Where is Guingamp vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs PAU part of?
Guingamp vs PAU is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 41% chance of winning, PAU a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Guingamp and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and PAU?
Record (4 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 0 | PAU 2W.
What form are Guingamp and PAU in?
Guingamp (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. PAU (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (0.93) and PAU's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.50
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.25
1.01
PAU xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Guingamp and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.01 for PAU, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 41 games, going 16W 11D 14L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.29 PPG from 41 outings (14W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.44 PPG, PAU on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Guingamp's home form reads 7W 4D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.15 points per game from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.10 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and PAU in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 16W 11D 14L in their last 41 games (1.44 PPG), while PAU have gone 14W 11D 16L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or PAU away?
Guingamp's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.25 PPG; PAU away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Guingamp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting PAU specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Guingamp
1
Draws
4
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 5, PAU have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when PAU 2-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and PAU?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 50%, PAU 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Guingamp) and 30% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Guingamp have failed to score in 35% of games; PAU in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Guingamp's recent matches and 50% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Guingamp's recent games and 30% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and PAU tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PAU in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 4-0 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat PAU 4-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.24 xG and PAU 1.01 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against PAU attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 41% | Draw 29% | PAU 30%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 44%, PAU 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
PAU's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.44 PPG, PAU 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.