Dunkerque 0-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dunkerque vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dunkerque host Angers at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Ligue 2 (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Dunkerque — last 3 games: 1W 1D 1L, averaging 1.33 points per game. Last five: D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Across their last 10 games, Angers have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Angers have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Dunkerque have the edge — a 0.73 PPG advantage (1.33 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Angers in-play and half-time data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 33% of Dunkerque's games and 33% of Angers's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 67% | Angers 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.32 xG and Angers 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.990 / defence 1.296 | Angers attack 0.752 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 0.979. Angers's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Dunkerque's defence rating of 1.296 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Angers's projected output up. Data: built from Dunkerque's last 3 games and Angers's last 3.
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 45% | Draw 28% | Angers 27%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 2.22 | Draw 3.58 | Angers 3.70. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dunkerque are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dunkerque 33% (last 3 games) | Angers 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 4 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 45% | Draw 28% | Angers 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Dunkerque 1.32 / Angers 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.990 / def 1.296 | Angers attack 0.752 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.215 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Angers xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dunkerque vs Angers FAQs
What time does Dunkerque vs Angers kick off?
Dunkerque vs Angers kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Angers?
Dunkerque 0 - 1 Angers.
Where is Dunkerque vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Angers part of?
Dunkerque vs Angers is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 4) (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 45% chance of winning, Angers a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dunkerque and Angers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Dunkerque vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dunkerque's attack rating (0.99) and Angers's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dunkerque's last 3 games and Angers's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.58
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.27
0.95
Angers xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dunkerque vs Angers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.95 for Angers, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Dunkerque have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — D-W-L across the most recent five.
Angers's form line: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-D-D.
Put side by side, Dunkerque are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Angers.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Early Season
Angers
Early Season
Dunkerque (Home) vs Angers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dunkerque
Early Season
Angers
Early Season
❓ Dunkerque vs Angers Form FAQs
What form are Dunkerque and Angers in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Angers have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
Have Dunkerque or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Angers in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 17 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dunkerque
1
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Dunkerque vs Angers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Angers?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Dunkerque have won 0, Angers have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Angers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2024: Angers 0-0 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Angers?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Angers see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dunkerque 33% BTTS, Angers 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Dunkerque) and 33% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Angers in 33%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 33% of games; Angers in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dunkerque vs Angers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dunkerque and Angers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 33% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dunkerque and Angers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Dunkerque's recent games and 33% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Dunkerque 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Dunkerque 0-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.32 xG and Angers 0.95 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dunkerque fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.99 / defence 1.30 against Angers attack 0.75 / defence 1.10, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 45% | Draw 28% | Angers 27%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 67%, Angers 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Angers's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Angers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dunkerque managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Angers conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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