PAU 2-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAU face Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Rodez in Ligue 2 (matchday 5). Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAU's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rodez's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for PAU, 1.00 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, PAU edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 May 2023, ended PAU 3–2 Rodez — a PAU win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 35% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 44% versus Rodez 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 37% | Rodez 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.44 xG and Rodez 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.239 / defence 0.994 | Rodez attack 0.952 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 0.967. Data: built from PAU's last 42 games and Rodez's last 41.
Result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 27% | Rodez 24%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.03 | Draw 3.74 | Rodez 4.18. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAU 40% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 5 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 27% | Rodez 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG PAU 1.44 / Rodez 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.239 / def 0.994 | Rodez attack 0.952 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.237 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: PAU (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Rodez xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Rodez FAQs
What time does PAU vs Rodez kick off?
PAU vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Rodez?
PAU 2 - 2 Rodez.
Where is PAU vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Rodez part of?
PAU vs Rodez is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 5) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 49% chance of winning, Rodez a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both PAU and Rodez will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will PAU vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PAU's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.95x) against PAU's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 42 games and Rodez's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.74
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
PAU xG
Total xG
2.35
0.92
Rodez xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
6%
17.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Rodez Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are PAU and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for PAU and 0.92 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 11D 16L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.15 PPG from 41 outings (11W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for PAU against 1.15 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 8W 5D 7L across their last 20 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 20 away games (6W 7D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
PAU (Home) vs Rodez (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ PAU vs Rodez Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Rodez in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 14W 11D 16L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Rodez have gone 11W 14D 16L in their last 41 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Rodez away?
PAU's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.45 PPG; Rodez away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won PAU 0-5 Rodez on 14 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
PAU
4
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Rodez H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Rodez?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 3, Rodez have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Rodez last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Rodez 2-2 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 35% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 40%, Rodez 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (PAU) and 30% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 30% of games; Rodez in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Rodez Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Rodez matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of PAU's recent matches and 40% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAU and Rodez matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of PAU's recent games and 30% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Rodez matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of PAU's recent matches and 35% of Rodez's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Rodez share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 5, as PAU and Rodez drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.44 xG and Rodez 0.92 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rodez outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.24 / defence 0.99 against Rodez attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 49% | Draw 27% | Rodez 24%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 37%, Rodez 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.29 PPG, Rodez 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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