PAU 2-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PAU at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for PAU, 1.00 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAU lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2023, ended 3–2 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 35% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 44% versus Rodez 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 37% | Rodez 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.44 xG and Rodez 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.239 / defence 0.994 | Rodez attack 0.952 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 0.967. Data: 42 PAU games / 41 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 27% | Rodez 24%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Rodez 4.17. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Rodez 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 27% | Rodez 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG PAU 1.44 / Rodez 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.239 / def 0.994 | Rodez attack 0.952 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.237 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: PAU (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Rodez xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Rodez kick off?
PAU vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Rodez?
PAU 2 - 2 Rodez.
Where is PAU vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Rodez part of?
PAU vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 49% chance of winning, Rodez a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both PAU and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Rodez?
Record (4 meetings): PAU 2W | Draws 1 | Rodez 1W.
What form are PAU and Rodez in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PAU's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.95x) against PAU's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.74
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
PAU xG
Total xG
2.35
0.92
Rodez xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
6%
17.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are PAU and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for PAU and 0.92 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 11D 16L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.15 PPG from 41 outings (11W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for PAU against 1.15 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 8W 5D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.25 points per game from 20 outings (6W 7D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Rodez in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 14W 11D 16L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Rodez have gone 11W 14D 16L in their last 41 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Rodez away?
PAU's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.45 PPG; Rodez away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 0-5 on 14 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
PAU
3
Draws
4
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Rodez have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when PAU 3-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 35% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 40%, Rodez 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (PAU) and 30% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 30% of games; Rodez in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of PAU's recent matches and 40% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of PAU's recent games and 30% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Rodez tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Rodez in 35% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Rodez share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 5, as PAU and Rodez drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.44 xG and Rodez 0.92 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rodez outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.24 / defence 0.99 against Rodez attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 49% | Draw 27% | Rodez 24%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 37%, Rodez 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.29 PPG, Rodez 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.