PAU 2-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PAU at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 3 as PAU welcome Paris FC to Stade Nouste Camp. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAU — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Paris FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Paris FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (PAU) versus 1.50 (Paris FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for PAU, 1 for Paris FC and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with PAU winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 45% versus Paris FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 38% | Paris FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.64 xG and Paris FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.205 / defence 1.061 | Paris FC attack 0.915 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.078. Data: 40 PAU games / 40 Paris FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAU 51% | Draw 25% | Paris FC 24%. Fair-value odds: PAU 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Paris FC 4.17. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Paris FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 51% | Draw 25% | Paris FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG PAU 1.64 / Paris FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.205 / def 1.061 | Paris FC attack 0.915 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: PAU (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Paris FC xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Paris FC kick off?
PAU vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Paris FC?
PAU 2 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is PAU vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Paris FC part of?
PAU vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 51% chance of winning, Paris FC a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PAU and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Paris FC?
Record (4 meetings): PAU 2W | Draws 1 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are PAU and Paris FC in?
PAU (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Paris FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAU's attack rating (1.21) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
51%
1.96
25%
4.06
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
PAU xG
Total xG
2.68
1.05
Paris FC xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
5%
21.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are PAU and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for PAU and 1.05 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAU come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 11D 16L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.38 PPG from 40 outings (15W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.25 PPG, Paris FC on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAU's home form reads 7W 6D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L).
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.12 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
Paris FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Paris FC in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 15W 10D 15L in their last 40 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.35 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have PAU or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Paris FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Paris FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAU's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAU
3
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Paris FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Paris FC 3-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Paris FC?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 40%, Paris FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (PAU) and 35% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Paris FC in 40%; PAU have failed to score in 35% of games; Paris FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of PAU's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of PAU's recent games and 35% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Paris FC tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Paris FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Paris FC 2-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.64 xG and Paris FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Paris FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.21 / defence 1.06 against Paris FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PAU 51% | Draw 25% | Paris FC 24%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 38%, Paris FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.25 PPG, Paris FC 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.