Grenoble 2-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Grenoble face Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade des Alpes plays host to Grenoble versus Rodez in Ligue 2 (matchday 21). Kick-off: Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Grenoble have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Grenoble at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Grenoble are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Rodez's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Rodez have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Grenoble against 1.30 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2024, ended Grenoble 1–2 Rodez — a Rodez win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Grenoble goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 43% versus Rodez 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 47% | Rodez 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Grenoble surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Rodez have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.60 xG and Rodez 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.983 / defence 0.979 | Rodez attack 1.197 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.015. Rodez's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Grenoble's projected output up. Data: built from Grenoble's last 58 games and Rodez's last 58.
Result probabilities: Grenoble 47% | Draw 25% | Rodez 28%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.13 | Draw 4.04 | Rodez 3.52. Grenoble hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Grenoble as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Grenoble's last 10 home games and Rodez's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Grenoble 40% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 47% | Draw 25% | Rodez 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Grenoble 1.60 / Rodez 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.983 / def 0.979 | Rodez attack 1.197 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Rodez xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Grenoble vs Rodez FAQs
What time does Grenoble vs Rodez kick off?
Grenoble vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 31 January 2025 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Rodez?
Grenoble 2 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Grenoble vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Rodez part of?
Grenoble vs Rodez is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 21) (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 47% chance of winning, Rodez a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Grenoble and Rodez will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Grenoble vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.98x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.20x) against Grenoble's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Grenoble's last 58 games and Rodez's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
47%
2.13
25%
4.04
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.79
1.19
Rodez xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
6%
17.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Grenoble vs Rodez Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.19 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grenoble come into this having played 58 games, going 21W 15D 22L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.38 PPG from 58 outings (21W 17D 20L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Grenoble against 1.38 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Grenoble's home form reads 13W 9D 7L across their last 29 home games, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 29 away games (8W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grenoble are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.60 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 66%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Rodez
Blended
Grenoble (Home) vs Rodez (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Grenoble
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Grenoble vs Rodez Form FAQs
What form are Grenoble and Rodez in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 21W 15D 22L in their last 58 games (1.34 PPG), while Rodez have gone 21W 17D 20L in their last 58 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Rodez away?
Grenoble's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.66 PPG; Rodez away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rodez in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Grenoble
2
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Grenoble vs Rodez H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Rodez?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Grenoble have won 5, Rodez have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Rodez last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Rodez 0-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Rodez?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 41%, Rodez 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Grenoble) and 59% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Grenoble vs Rodez Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Grenoble and Rodez matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Grenoble's recent matches and 62% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Grenoble and Rodez matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Grenoble's recent games and 59% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Rodez matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Grenoble's recent matches and 86% of Rodez's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Grenoble edge out Rodez 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Rodez 2-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.60 xG and Rodez 1.19 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Rodez attack 1.20 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 47% | Draw 25% | Rodez 28%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 47%, Rodez 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.34 PPG, Rodez 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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