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Poisson rates Guingamp at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Paris FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Guingamp and Paris FC meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Guingamp (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guingamp at Stade du Roudourou this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Roudourou.

Paris FC's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Paris FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form ledger tips toward Guingamp. A 0.90 PPG lead over Paris FC (2.20 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Guingamp lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Paris FC winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Guingamp — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Paris FC — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 41% versus Paris FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Paris FC 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.48 xG and Paris FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.257 / defence 0.855 | Paris FC attack 1.076 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.007. Guingamp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 1.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Guingamp games / 58 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 50% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Paris FC 4.17. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Paris FC 30% BTTS from recent games.

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