Rodez 0-0 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Rodez take on Valenciennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rodez and Valenciennes meet at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Paul Lignon, Rodez have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Paul Lignon. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Valenciennes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valenciennes's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Rodez's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Valenciennes's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Rodez, 0 for Valenciennes and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 4–1 with Rodez winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Valenciennes half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 27% versus Valenciennes 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 27% | Valenciennes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.81 xG and Valenciennes 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.727 / defence 1.070 | Valenciennes attack 0.742 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 0.997 / away 1.013. Rodez's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Rodez games / 22 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 32% | Draw 37% | Valenciennes 31%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | Valenciennes 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Valenciennes's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.61 combined xG gives a 22% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 20% | Valenciennes 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 32% | Draw 37% | Valenciennes 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 32% | xG Rodez 0.81 / Valenciennes 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.727 / def 1.070 | Valenciennes attack 0.742 / def 1.118 | league avg home 0.997 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Valenciennes xG
32%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Valenciennes kick off?
Rodez vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Valenciennes?
Rodez 0 - 0 Valenciennes.
Where is Rodez vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Valenciennes part of?
Rodez vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 32% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Rodez and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Valenciennes?
Record (1 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 0 | Valenciennes 0W.
What form are Rodez and Valenciennes in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Valenciennes (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.73) and Valenciennes's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.74x) against Rodez's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
37%
2.71
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.61
0.80
Valenciennes xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.17
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.9 | 16.0 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.6%.
How many goals are Rodez and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Rodez and 0.80 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 7W 7D 8L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valenciennes's form line: 6W 7D 9L from 22 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Rodez against 1.14 for Valenciennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 1.05 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 games (1.27 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Valenciennes away?
Rodez's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.30 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Rodez or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 1-4 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rodez
3
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Valenciennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Valenciennes have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Valenciennes 0-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Valenciennes?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Rodez) and 40% (Valenciennes) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Rodez and 30% for Valenciennes.
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Valenciennes in 40%; Rodez have failed to score in 50% of games; Valenciennes in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Rodez's recent matches and 40% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Rodez's recent games and 30% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rodez's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 23, as Rodez and Valenciennes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.81 xG and Valenciennes 0.80 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rodez fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Valenciennes landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.73 / defence 1.07 against Valenciennes attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 32% | Draw 37% | Valenciennes 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 27%, Valenciennes 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valenciennes's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.27 PPG, Valenciennes 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Valenciennes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.