Niort 0-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Niort vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Niort welcome Guingamp to Stade René Gaillard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Niort — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort at Stade René Gaillard this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guingamp — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Niort register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Niort have won 1, Guingamp 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Guingamp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Niort in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 39% versus Guingamp 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 44% | Guingamp 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.27 xG and Guingamp 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.831 / defence 1.138 | Guingamp attack 1.446 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.169. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Niort's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Guingamp have an above-average attack strength of 1.446 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Niort games / 46 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 25% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 53%. Fair-value odds: Niort 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | Guingamp 1.89. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Niort 60% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 25% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Niort 1.27 / Guingamp 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.831 / def 1.138 | Guingamp attack 1.446 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Niort xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Guingamp xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Guingamp kick off?
Niort vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Guingamp?
Niort 0 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Niort vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Guingamp part of?
Niort vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 25% chance of winning, Guingamp a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Niort and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Guingamp?
Record (2 meetings): Niort 1W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Niort and Guingamp in?
Niort (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Niort's attack rating (0.83) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
25%
3.97
22%
4.51
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Niort xG
Total xG
3.20
1.92
Guingamp xG
3.97
25%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
15%
6.84
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
4%
27.15
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Niort and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Niort and 1.92 for Guingamp, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Niort come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 10D 22L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.61 PPG from 46 outings (20W 14D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Niort — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Niort's home form reads 8W 5D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.48 points per game from 23 outings (9W 7D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Niort are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.50 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 14W 10D 22L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 20W 14D 12L in their last 46 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.26 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Niort and Guingamp runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Niort's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Niort
1
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 1, Guingamp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Guingamp 2-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Niort see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 39%, Guingamp 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Niort) and 48% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 39% of games; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Niort's recent matches and 52% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Niort's recent games and 48% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Guingamp tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Niort's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort and Guingamp finished level at 0-0 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.27 xG and Guingamp 1.92 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Niort fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Guingamp landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.83 / defence 1.14 against Guingamp attack 1.45 / defence 1.21, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 25% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 53%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 44%, Guingamp 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.