Concarneau 2-3 Guingamp – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Guingamp at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Concarneau face Guingamp.

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Full Analysis

Stade Francis-Le Blé plays host to Concarneau versus Guingamp in Ligue 2 (matchday 28). Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Concarneau's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Concarneau's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Guingamp (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, Guingamp have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Concarneau edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Concarneau 1–0 Guingamp — a Concarneau win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Concarneau goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 37% versus Guingamp 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 44% | Guingamp 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.01 xG and Guingamp 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.925 / defence 1.413 | Guingamp attack 0.849 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.076. Concarneau's defence rating of 1.413 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Guingamp's projected output up. Data: built from Concarneau's last 27 games and Guingamp's last 65.

Result probabilities: Concarneau 28% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 42%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 3.53 | Draw 3.41 | Guingamp 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Concarneau's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Concarneau 60% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 20% (last 10 away games).

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