Poisson model rates Rodez at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to to face Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Rodez have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rodez haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Rodez's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dijon lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Dijon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Where They Stand
Rodez are 5th in Ligue 2 with 58 points from 34 games.
Rodez: Promotion Playoffs.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.06 xG and Rodez 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Rodez attack 1.027 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 0 Dijon games / 34 Rodez games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dijon 25% | Draw 29% | Rodez 45%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Rodez 2.22. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Manager edge: Dijon led by B. Ridira • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (4 meetings): Dijon 2W | Draws 1 | Rodez 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Dijon 5 – 3 Rodez • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 25% | Win rates: Dijon 50% / Draw 25% / Rodez 25% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 25% / draw 29% / away 45% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (25% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.55 (47% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Rodez (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D • Rodez away split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | CS 3
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 25% | Draw 29% | Rodez 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Dijon 1.06 / Rodez 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Rodez attack 1.027 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Rodez (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Rodez xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Rodez kick off?
Dijon vs Rodez is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 October 2026.
What competition is Dijon vs Rodez part of?
Dijon vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 25% chance of winning, Rodez a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dijon and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Rodez?
• Record (4 meetings): Dijon 2W | Draws 1 | Rodez 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Dijon 5 – 3 Rodez • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 25% | Win rates: Dijon 50% / Draw 25% / Rodez 25% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 25% / draw 29% / away 45% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (25% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.55 (47% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Dijon and Rodez in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Rodez (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D • Rodez away split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | CS 3
What do the betting odds say about Dijon vs Rodez?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture