Guingamp vs PAU – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host PAU at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp at Stade de Roudourou this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAU are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 5, PAU 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Guingamp in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
PAU in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus PAU 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 55% | PAU 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.48 xG and PAU 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.097 / defence 1.075 | PAU attack 1.061 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 38 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 37% | Draw 28% | PAU 35%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | PAU 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PAU (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 30% | PAU 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 37% | Draw 28% | PAU 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Guingamp 1.48 / PAU 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.097 / def 1.075 | PAU attack 1.061 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.43
PAU xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs PAU kick off?
Guingamp vs PAU is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs PAU part of?
Guingamp vs PAU is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 37% chance of winning, PAU a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Guingamp and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and PAU?
Record (10 meetings): Guingamp 5W | Draws 1 | PAU 4W.
What form are Guingamp and PAU in?
Guingamp (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. PAU (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.10) and PAU's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.59
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.91
1.43
PAU xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.43 for PAU, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 11D 16L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.29 PPG from 38 outings (13W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.16 PPG, PAU on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Guingamp's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.53 points per game from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.34 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and PAU in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while PAU have gone 13W 10D 15L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or PAU away?
PAU's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.42 PPG; PAU away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Guingamp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting PAU specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Guingamp
1
Draws
4
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 5, PAU have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when PAU 2-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and PAU?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 37%, PAU 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Guingamp) and 63% (PAU). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; PAU in 37%; Guingamp have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Guingamp's recent matches and 53% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Guingamp's matches and 63% of PAU's.
Do Guingamp and PAU tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, PAU in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.