Clermont Foot 1-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Guingamp encounter.

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Match Analysis

Clermont Foot host Guingamp at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2 (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Clermont Foot — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Guingamp stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Guingamp's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Clermont Foot have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Clermont Foot's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Clermont Foot have won 2, Guingamp 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2025, ended Clermont Foot 1–0 Guingamp — a Clermont Foot win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 56% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 41% | Guingamp 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.34 xG and Guingamp 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.917 / defence 1.000 | Guingamp attack 0.975 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.255. Guingamp's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Clermont Foot's projected output up. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 67 games and Guingamp's last 67.

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.67 | Draw 3.28 | Guingamp 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 70% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 70% (last 10 away games).

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