Le Havre 1-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Le Havre and PAU meet at Stade Océane in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 3W 2D 1L this season (6 games, 1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane.
PAU (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, PAU have posted 1W 2D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 42% versus PAU 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 25% | PAU 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.19 xG and PAU 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.024 / defence 0.948 | PAU attack 0.780 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.054. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Le Havre games / 12 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 44% | Draw 33% | PAU 23%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | PAU 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 50% | PAU 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 44% | Draw 33% | PAU 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Le Havre 1.19 / PAU 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.024 / def 0.948 | PAU attack 0.780 / def 1.275 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.78
PAU xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs PAU kick off?
Le Havre vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs PAU?
Le Havre 1 - 0 PAU.
Where is Le Havre vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs PAU part of?
Le Havre vs PAU is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 44% chance of winning, PAU a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Le Havre and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and PAU in?
Le Havre (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. PAU (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Le Havre's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.78x) against Le Havre's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
44%
2.26
33%
3.07
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.97
0.78
PAU xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
7%
14.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.78 for PAU, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre come into this having played 12 games, going 5W 6D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Le Havre against 1.50 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Le Havre's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.08 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and PAU in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 5W 6D 1L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while PAU have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or PAU away?
Le Havre's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 2.00 PPG; PAU away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Le Havre or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, PAU in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Le Havre
1
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, PAU have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when PAU 0-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and PAU?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 60%, PAU 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Le Havre) and 40% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; PAU in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Le Havre's recent matches and 40% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Le Havre's recent games and 40% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and PAU tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, PAU in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out PAU 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat PAU 1-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.19 xG and PAU 0.78 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against PAU attack 0.78 / defence 1.27, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 44% | Draw 33% | PAU 23%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 25%, PAU 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAU's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.75 PPG, PAU 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.