Dunkerque 1-1 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Caen make the trip to Stade Marcel-Tribut to face Dunkerque in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Dunkerque (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dunkerque have posted 1W 2D 3L at Stade Marcel-Tribut — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Caen's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen away from home this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Dunkerque, 0.90 for Caen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 50% versus Caen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 42% | Caen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.79 xG and Caen 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.773 / defence 1.152 | Caen attack 0.931 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.054. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Dunkerque games / 12 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 24% | Draw 33% | Caen 42%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Caen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 33% | Caen 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 24% | Draw 33% | Caen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Dunkerque 0.79 / Caen 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.773 / def 1.152 | Caen attack 0.931 / def 1.119 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Caen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Caen xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Caen kick off?
Dunkerque vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Caen?
Dunkerque 1 - 1 Caen.
Where is Dunkerque vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Caen part of?
Dunkerque vs Caen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 24% chance of winning, Caen a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Dunkerque and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Caen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dunkerque and Caen in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Caen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dunkerque's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Caen's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Caen's attack (0.93x) against Dunkerque's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
24%
4.14
33%
3.00
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.92
1.13
Caen xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.82
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 16.6 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.13 for Caen, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Dunkerque have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 3D 6L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Caen's form line: 4W 3D 5L from 12 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.25 for Caen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dunkerque have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Caen have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dunkerque are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.25 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Caen in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Caen have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Caen away?
Caen's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.80 PPG; Caen away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Caen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dunkerque have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dunkerque have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Caen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
2
Draws
2
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Caen?
From 6 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 2, Caen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2025, when Caen 0-2 Dunkerque.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Dunkerque) and 40% (Caen) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Dunkerque and 20% for Caen.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Caen in 40%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 60% of games; Caen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 40% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Dunkerque's recent games and 20% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Caen tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Caen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dunkerque and Caen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 13, as Dunkerque and Caen drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.79 xG and Caen 1.13 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.77 / defence 1.15 against Caen attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 24% | Draw 33% | Caen 42%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 42%, Caen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Caen's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.00 PPG, Caen 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.