Caen 1-0 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Caen face Concarneau.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Caen and Concarneau meet at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Ligue 2 (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Caen (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Caen at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Concarneau's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Concarneau's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Caen, 0 for Concarneau and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Caen 2–0 Concarneau — a Caen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Concarneau half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 53% versus Concarneau 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 53% | Concarneau 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.25 xG and Concarneau 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.081 / defence 0.934 | Concarneau attack 0.846 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.149. Data: built from Caen's last 57 games and Concarneau's last 19.
Result probabilities: Caen 44% | Draw 30% | Concarneau 26%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.29 | Draw 3.30 | Concarneau 3.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Caen 50% (last 10 home games) | Concarneau 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 20 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 44% | Draw 30% | Concarneau 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Caen 1.25 / Concarneau 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.081 / def 0.934 | Concarneau attack 0.846 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Caen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Concarneau xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Caen vs Concarneau FAQs
What time does Caen vs Concarneau kick off?
Caen vs Concarneau kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Concarneau?
Caen 1 - 0 Concarneau.
Where is Caen vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Concarneau part of?
Caen vs Concarneau is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 20) (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 44% chance of winning, Concarneau a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Caen and Concarneau will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Caen vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.08) and Concarneau's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Concarneau's attack (0.85x) against Caen's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from Caen's last 57 games and Concarneau's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.30
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Caen xG
Total xG
2.16
0.91
Concarneau xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Caen vs Concarneau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Caen and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Caen and 0.91 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Caen have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 7W 5D 7L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Concarneau's form line: 6W 4D 9L from 19 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Caen against 1.16 for Concarneau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 9 home games (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Concarneau have gone 4W 2D 3L from their last 9 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.16 PPG overall record — Concarneau travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Caen are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 0.95 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Caen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
Caen (Home) vs Concarneau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Caen
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
❓ Caen vs Concarneau Form FAQs
What form are Caen and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 games (1.37 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Concarneau away?
Caen's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.56 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Caen or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Concarneau in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Caen and Concarneau, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Caen
0
Draws
0
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Caen vs Concarneau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Concarneau?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Caen have won 2, Concarneau have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Concarneau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 January 2024: Caen 1-0 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Concarneau?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Concarneau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (Caen) and 22% (Concarneau) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Caen) and 33% (Concarneau).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Concarneau in 44%; Concarneau in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Caen vs Concarneau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Caen and Concarneau matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Caen's recent matches and 22% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Caen and Concarneau matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Caen's recent games and 33% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Concarneau matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Caen's recent matches and 67% of Concarneau's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Caen edge out Concarneau 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Concarneau 1-0 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.25 xG and Concarneau 0.91 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Concarneau landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Concarneau attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 44% | Draw 30% | Concarneau 26%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 53%, Concarneau 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Concarneau's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.37 PPG, Concarneau 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Concarneau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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