Auxerre 0-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Dunkerque meet at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Auxerre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season.
Dunkerque have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dunkerque have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Auxerre's favour (1.90 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Dunkerque and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Auxerre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Dunkerque — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 64% versus Dunkerque 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 64% | Dunkerque 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 2.19 xG and Dunkerque 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.147 / defence 0.982 | Dunkerque attack 0.980 / defence 1.498. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.105. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.498 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Auxerre games / 11 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 63% | Draw 20% | Dunkerque 17%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Dunkerque 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 70% | Dunkerque 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 63% | Draw 20% | Dunkerque 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 58% | xG Auxerre 2.19 / Dunkerque 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.147 / def 0.982 | Dunkerque attack 0.980 / def 1.498 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Dunkerque xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Dunkerque kick off?
Auxerre vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Dunkerque?
Auxerre 0 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Auxerre vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Dunkerque part of?
Auxerre vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 63% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Auxerre and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Dunkerque?
Record (2 meetings): Auxerre 2W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Dunkerque in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Dunkerque (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.98x) against Auxerre's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
63%
1.60
20%
4.92
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.25
1.06
Dunkerque xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
11%
8.93
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
2%
52.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.06 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Dunkerque?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre come into this having played 11 games, going 6W 4D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dunkerque sit at 0.55 PPG from 11 outings (1W 3D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.45 PPG clear of Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Auxerre's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Dunkerque have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.91 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 6W 4D 1L in their last 11 games (2.00 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Dunkerque away?
Auxerre's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.60 PPG; Dunkerque away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Auxerre
0
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Dunkerque?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 3, Dunkerque have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2024, when Dunkerque 1-3 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Dunkerque?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 40%, Dunkerque 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Auxerre and 60% for Dunkerque. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 40% of games; Dunkerque in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Auxerre's recent matches and 40% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Auxerre's matches and 60% of Dunkerque's.
Do Auxerre and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dunkerque defy the odds to beat Auxerre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Auxerre 0-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 2.19 xG and Dunkerque 1.06 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Dunkerque attack 0.98 / defence 1.50, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 63% | Draw 20% | Dunkerque 17%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Dunkerque win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 64%, Dunkerque 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Dunkerque's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.55. Form was overturned, with Dunkerque winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Dunkerque (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.