Bordeaux 1-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bordeaux face Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Matmut-Atlantique plays host to Bordeaux versus Guingamp in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Bordeaux (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Bordeaux have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Guingamp's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Guingamp's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Bordeaux against 1.10 for Guingamp. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Bordeaux, 1 for Guingamp and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2023, ended Bordeaux 0–0 Guingamp — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 42% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 42% | Guingamp 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.12 xG and Guingamp 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.013 / defence 0.818 | Guingamp attack 0.883 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.105. Data: built from Bordeaux's last 62 games and Guingamp's last 63.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 43% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 26%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.33 | Draw 3.22 | Guingamp 3.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bordeaux's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 0.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bordeaux 50% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 43% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Bordeaux 1.12 / Guingamp 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.013 / def 0.818 | Guingamp attack 0.883 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Guingamp xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bordeaux vs Guingamp FAQs
What time does Bordeaux vs Guingamp kick off?
Bordeaux vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Guingamp?
Bordeaux 1 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Bordeaux vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Guingamp part of?
Bordeaux vs Guingamp is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 43% chance of winning, Guingamp a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bordeaux and Guingamp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Bordeaux vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 1.01x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.88x) against Bordeaux's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Bordeaux's last 62 games and Guingamp's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.22
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
1.92
0.80
Guingamp xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
8%
11.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bordeaux vs Guingamp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.80 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 29W 15D 18L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 23W 18D 21L from 62 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Bordeaux against 1.40 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 2.03 PPG from their last 30 home games (18W 7D 5L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 12W 10D 8L from their last 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bordeaux are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.26 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
Bordeaux (Home) vs Guingamp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bordeaux
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Bordeaux vs Guingamp Form FAQs
What form are Bordeaux and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 29W 15D 18L in their last 62 games (1.65 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 23W 18D 21L in their last 62 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Guingamp away?
Bordeaux's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 2.03 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Guingamp in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Bordeaux and Guingamp, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bordeaux have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bordeaux
1
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Bordeaux vs Guingamp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Guingamp?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bordeaux have won 2, Guingamp have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Guingamp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Bordeaux 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Guingamp?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 40%, Guingamp 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Bordeaux and 33% for Guingamp.
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Guingamp in 40%; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bordeaux vs Guingamp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bordeaux and Guingamp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 47% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bordeaux and Guingamp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bordeaux's recent games and 33% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Guingamp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 63% of Guingamp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bordeaux edge out Guingamp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Guingamp 1-0 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.12 xG and Guingamp 0.80 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.01 / defence 0.82 against Guingamp attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 43% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 26%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 42%, Guingamp 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guingamp's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 1.65 PPG, Guingamp 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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