Estac Troyes 1-2 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Aube plays host to Estac Troyes versus Dunkerque in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Estac Troyes (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes at Stade de l'Aube this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dunkerque have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.50 for Dunkerque. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Estac Troyes lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 56% versus Dunkerque 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 52% | Dunkerque 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.40 xG and Dunkerque 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.168 / defence 1.181 | Dunkerque attack 0.899 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.105. Data: 25 Estac Troyes games / 25 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 42% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 32%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Dunkerque 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 60% | Dunkerque 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 42% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Estac Troyes 1.40 / Dunkerque 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.168 / def 1.181 | Dunkerque attack 0.899 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Dunkerque xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque?
Estac Troyes 1 - 2 Dunkerque.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque part of?
Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 42% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Estac Troyes and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Dunkerque?
Record (1 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Dunkerque in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 1.17x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.90x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.79
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.57
1.17
Dunkerque xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.17 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 7W 9D 9L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque's form line: 7W 6D 12L from 25 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.08 for Dunkerque. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 1.67 PPG from 12 outings (6W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Estac Troyes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 4W 4D 4L from 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.88 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 7W 9D 9L in their last 25 games (1.20 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Dunkerque away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.67 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estac Troyes won 5-1 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
3
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Dunkerque?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 2, Dunkerque have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Estac Troyes 5-1 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 67%, Dunkerque 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Estac Troyes) and 42% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque in 33%; Dunkerque in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 42% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 42% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dunkerque defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Estac Troyes 1-2 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.40 xG and Dunkerque 1.17 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dunkerque outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.17 / defence 1.18 against Dunkerque attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 42% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 32%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Dunkerque win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 52%, Dunkerque 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.20 PPG, Dunkerque 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.