Bordeaux 1-0 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bordeaux at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Concarneau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Concarneau make the trip to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to face Bordeaux in Ligue 2 (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Monday 14 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Bordeaux (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bordeaux's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Concarneau have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 1 games: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
The form ledger tips toward Bordeaux. A 0.90 PPG lead over Concarneau (1.90 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.59 xG and Concarneau 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.137 / defence 0.846 | Concarneau attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.082. Data: built from Bordeaux's last 38 games and Concarneau's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 57% | Draw 25% | Concarneau 18%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 1.76 | Draw 4.00 | Concarneau 5.49. The model has a clear lean to Bordeaux (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bordeaux's last 10 home games and Concarneau's last 1 games) averaging 1.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Bordeaux 38 games, Concarneau 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 2 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Monday 14 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 57% | Draw 25% | Concarneau 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Bordeaux 1.59 / Concarneau 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.137 / def 0.846 | Concarneau attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Concarneau xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bordeaux vs Concarneau FAQs
What time does Bordeaux vs Concarneau kick off?
Bordeaux vs Concarneau kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 14 August 2023 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Concarneau?
Bordeaux 1 - 0 Concarneau.
Where is Bordeaux vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Concarneau part of?
Bordeaux vs Concarneau is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 2) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 57% chance of winning, Concarneau a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bordeaux and Concarneau will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Bordeaux vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 1.14x the league average against Concarneau's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Concarneau's attack (0.85x) against Bordeaux's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from Bordeaux's last 38 games and Concarneau's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.00
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.37
0.78
Concarneau xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
4%
27.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bordeaux vs Concarneau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.78 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Concarneau?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five.
Concarneau's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D.
Put side by side, Concarneau are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bordeaux.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bordeaux are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Concarneau in 0%.
Defensively: Concarneau in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Early Season
Concarneau
Early Season
Bordeaux (Home) vs Concarneau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bordeaux
Early Season
Concarneau
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Bordeaux vs Concarneau Form FAQs
What form are Bordeaux and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Bordeaux or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Concarneau in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
0
Draws
1
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Bordeaux vs Concarneau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Concarneau?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Bordeaux have won 1, Concarneau have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Concarneau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2024: Concarneau 4-2 Bordeaux.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bordeaux vs Concarneau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bordeaux and Concarneau matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 0% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bordeaux and Concarneau matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Bordeaux's recent games and 0% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Concarneau matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 0% of Concarneau's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bordeaux edge out Concarneau 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Concarneau 1-0 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.59 xG and Concarneau 0.78 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Concarneau attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 57% | Draw 25% | Concarneau 18%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 100%, Concarneau 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Concarneau arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Bordeaux winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bordeaux scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Concarneau shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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