Auxerre 0-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Amiens travel to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 August 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Auxerre have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Auxerre 1.20 PPG, Amiens 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Auxerre register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Amiens in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Amiens and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Amiens trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 59% versus Amiens 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 49% | Amiens 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.22 xG and Amiens 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Amiens attack 0.996 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.183. Data: 1 Auxerre games / 39 Amiens games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 26% | Amiens 40%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Amiens 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 60% | Amiens 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 26% | Amiens 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Auxerre 1.22 / Amiens 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | Amiens attack 0.996 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Amiens (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Amiens xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Amiens kick off?
Auxerre vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Amiens?
Auxerre 0 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Auxerre vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Amiens part of?
Auxerre vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 33% chance of winning, Amiens a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Auxerre and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Amiens?
Record (2 meetings): Auxerre 2W | Draws 0 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Amiens in?
Auxerre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Amiens (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.87x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
33%
2.99
26%
3.78
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.57
1.35
Amiens xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.35 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Auxerre have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 11D 19L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amiens's form line: 14W 8D 17L from 39 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 0.97 PPG, Amiens on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 5W 5D 9L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.05 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Amiens in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 9W 11D 19L in their last 39 games (0.97 PPG), while Amiens have gone 14W 8D 17L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Amiens away?
Auxerre's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.16 PPG; Amiens away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Auxerre
1
Draws
1
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Amiens have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Amiens 0-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Amiens?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 58%, Amiens 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Auxerre) and 53% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Auxerre have failed to score in 26% of games; Amiens in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Amiens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Auxerre's games and 58% of Amiens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Auxerre's recent games and 53% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Amiens tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Amiens in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Auxerre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Auxerre 0-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.22 xG and Amiens 1.35 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Amiens attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 33% | Draw 26% | Amiens 40%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 49%, Amiens 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 0.97 PPG, Amiens 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.