Auxerre 0-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Amiens at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Auxerre face Amiens.

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Analysis & Preview

Amiens travel to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to take on Auxerre in Ligue 2 (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Auxerre — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Auxerre have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Amiens stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Amiens's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Auxerre 1.20 PPG, Amiens 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Auxerre's games and 70% of Amiens's (from Auxerre's last 10 home games and Amiens's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Auxerre have won 2, Amiens 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2022, ended Auxerre 2–1 Amiens — a Auxerre win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Auxerre trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Amiens trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 59% versus Amiens 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 49% | Amiens 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.22 xG and Amiens 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Amiens attack 0.996 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.183. Data: built from Auxerre's last 1 games and Amiens's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 26% | Amiens 40%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.99 | Draw 3.78 | Amiens 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 60% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 70% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Auxerre 1 games, Amiens 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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