Guingamp 0-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Dunkerque meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's home record at Stade du Roudourou: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dunkerque have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Guingamp's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Dunkerque's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Guingamp register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Dunkerque in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Guingamp 2W, Dunkerque 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 3–1 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.60 xG and Dunkerque 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.102 / defence 0.987 | Dunkerque attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.183. Data: 39 Guingamp games / 1 Dunkerque games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 52% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 23%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Dunkerque 4.35. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 52% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Guingamp 1.60 / Dunkerque 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.102 / def 0.987 | Dunkerque attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Dunkerque xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Dunkerque kick off?
Guingamp vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Guingamp 0 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Guingamp vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Dunkerque part of?
Guingamp vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 52% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Guingamp and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
Record (2 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Dunkerque in?
Guingamp (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.10) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.85x) against Guingamp's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
52%
1.94
25%
4.00
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.59
0.99
Dunkerque xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
5%
21.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.99 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dunkerque sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 4.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Dunkerque's attacking output running into Guingamp's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Dunkerque in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Dunkerque
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
3
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
From 9 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Dunkerque have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Dunkerque 0-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Guingamp's games and 100% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Guingamp's matches and 100% of Dunkerque's.
Do Guingamp and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dunkerque defy the odds to beat Guingamp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.60 xG and Dunkerque 0.99 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against Dunkerque attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 52% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 23%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Dunkerque win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 100%, Dunkerque 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Dunkerque winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guingamp managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Dunkerque managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.