Concarneau 0-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Concarneau vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Bastia travel to Stade du Roudourou to take on Concarneau. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bastia haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Bastia have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.27 xG and Bastia 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Bastia attack 1.193 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.143. Data: 0 Concarneau games / 38 Bastia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Concarneau 31% | Draw 25% | Bastia 44%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Bastia 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 31% | Draw 25% | Bastia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Concarneau 1.27 / Bastia 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Bastia attack 1.193 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Bastia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Bastia xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Bastia kick off?
Concarneau vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Bastia?
Concarneau 0 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Concarneau vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Concarneau vs Bastia part of?
Concarneau vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 31% chance of winning, Bastia a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Concarneau and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Concarneau and Bastia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Bastia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Concarneau's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Concarneau's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
31%
3.24
25%
4.04
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Concarneau xG
Total xG
2.83
1.57
Bastia xG
3.24
31%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
6%
15.56
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.57 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Pre-Season
Bastia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Concarneau and Bastia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Concarneau
1
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Bastia?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 0, Bastia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Bastia 2-0 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Concarneau's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 1, as Concarneau and Bastia drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 1.27 xG and Bastia 1.57 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Concarneau fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bastia landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Bastia attack 1.19 / defence 1.07, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 31% | Draw 25% | Bastia 44%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.