Quevilly 1-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Quevilly and Valenciennes meet at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly at Stade Robert Diochon this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Valenciennes have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Quevilly, 0 for Valenciennes and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Quevilly winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Quevilly — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Valenciennes — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 50% versus Valenciennes 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 54% | Valenciennes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.94 xG and Valenciennes 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.892 / defence 1.182 | Valenciennes attack 0.674 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.012. Data: 24 Quevilly games / 24 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 36% | Draw 35% | Valenciennes 29%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Valenciennes 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Valenciennes's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 50% | Valenciennes 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 36% | Draw 35% | Valenciennes 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Quevilly 0.94 / Valenciennes 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.892 / def 1.182 | Valenciennes attack 0.674 / def 1.064 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Valenciennes xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Valenciennes kick off?
Quevilly vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Quevilly 1 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is Quevilly vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Valenciennes part of?
Quevilly vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 36% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Quevilly and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Valenciennes?
Record (1 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 0 | Valenciennes 0W.
What form are Quevilly and Valenciennes in?
Quevilly (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Valenciennes (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.89x the league average against Valenciennes's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.67x) against Quevilly's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
36%
2.77
35%
2.86
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.74
0.81
Valenciennes xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 14.1 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.81 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 7D 10L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valenciennes sit at 1.08 PPG from 24 outings (6W 8D 10L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Quevilly against 1.08 for Valenciennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Quevilly's home form reads 3W 5D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Valenciennes have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 6W 8D 10L in their last 24 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Valenciennes away?
Quevilly's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.27 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Quevilly
4
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Valenciennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Valenciennes have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Valenciennes 2-1 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 54%, Valenciennes 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Quevilly) and 27% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes in 46%; Quevilly have failed to score in 36% of games; Valenciennes in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Quevilly's recent matches and 36% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Quevilly's recent games and 27% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly and Valenciennes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly and Valenciennes finished level at 1-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.94 xG and Valenciennes 0.81 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.89 / defence 1.18 against Valenciennes attack 0.67 / defence 1.06, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 36% | Draw 35% | Valenciennes 29%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 54%, Valenciennes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Valenciennes's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.17 PPG, Valenciennes 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.