Metz 5-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Metz at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Annecy make the trip to Stade Saint-Symphorien to face Metz in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Metz have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's home record at Stade Saint-Symphorien: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Saint-Symphorien. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Metz are significantly better at Stade Saint-Symphorien than their overall form suggests.
Annecy (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Metz's favour (1.90 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Metz 1W, Annecy 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Metz half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 52% versus Annecy 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 49% | Annecy 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.42 xG and Annecy 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 1.144 / defence 0.855 | Annecy attack 0.868 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.073. Data: 25 Metz games / 63 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 52% | Draw 27% | Annecy 21%. Fair-value odds: Metz 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Annecy 4.76. Metz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Metz at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Metz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Metz 30% | Annecy 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 52% | Draw 27% | Annecy 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Metz 1.42 / Annecy 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 1.144 / def 0.855 | Annecy attack 0.868 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Metz (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Metz xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Annecy xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Annecy kick off?
Metz vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Annecy?
Metz 5 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Metz vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Annecy part of?
Metz vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 52% chance of winning, Annecy a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Metz and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Annecy?
Record (3 meetings): Metz 1W | Draws 2 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Metz and Annecy in?
Metz (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Annecy (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Metz's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.87x) against Metz's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.68
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Metz xG
Total xG
2.22
0.80
Annecy xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
5%
19.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Metz and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Metz and 0.80 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Metz's recent record stands at 21W 14D 26L from 61 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 23L across 61 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Metz against 1.38 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Metz have managed 11W 8D 12L from 31 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 11W 8D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Metz are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.30 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Annecy in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 21W 14D 26L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while Annecy have gone 23W 15D 23L in their last 61 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Annecy away?
Metz's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.32 PPG; Annecy away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Metz or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Metz won 5-1 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Metz have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Metz
3
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Annecy?
From 5 meetings on record, Metz have won 2, Annecy have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Annecy 1-1 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Annecy?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 52%, Annecy 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Metz) and 55% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Metz have failed to score in 29% of games; Annecy in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Metz's recent matches and 55% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Metz's recent games and 55% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Annecy tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Annecy in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Metz run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Annecy 5-1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.42 xG and Annecy 0.80 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Annecy attack 0.87 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 52% | Draw 27% | Annecy 21%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 49%, Annecy 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.26 PPG, Annecy 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.