Annecy vs Boulogne Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Boulogne at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Annecy face Boulogne.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Boulogne travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Friday 12 March 2027 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Annecy stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Annecy have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Boulogne have recorded 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Boulogne's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.00 PPG versus Boulogne's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Annecy have won 1, Boulogne 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2026, ended Annecy 0–3 Boulogne — a Boulogne win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Annecy in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Boulogne in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 54% versus Boulogne 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 59% | Boulogne 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Annecy surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Boulogne have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.83 xG and Boulogne 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.875 / defence 1.097 | Boulogne attack 0.680 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.319. Boulogne bring a tight defence (rating 0.716, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Annecy's projected output down. Boulogne's attack rating of 0.680 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Annecy's last 46 games and Boulogne's last 46.

Result probabilities: Annecy 30% | Draw 33% | Boulogne 38%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.38 | Draw 3.07 | Boulogne 2.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Annecy's lower xG of 0.83 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Boulogne are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Boulogne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 73% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Annecy's last 10 home games and Boulogne's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 60% (last 10 home games) | Boulogne 20% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights