Guingamp vs Grenoble – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 43%, yet in-form Grenoble provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guingamp vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Guingamp welcome Grenoble to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Grenoble have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Grenoble have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grenoble away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Grenoble's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Guingamp, 1 for Grenoble and 7 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Grenoble trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Grenoble 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 55% | Grenoble 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.73 xG and Grenoble 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.097 / defence 1.075 | Grenoble attack 1.093 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Grenoble bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 38 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 26% | Grenoble 31%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Grenoble 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 62% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Grenoble (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 30% | Grenoble 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 12 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 26% | Grenoble 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Guingamp 1.73 / Grenoble 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.097 / def 1.075 | Grenoble attack 1.093 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Grenoble xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Grenoble kick off?
Guingamp vs Grenoble is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 March 2027 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Grenoble part of?
Guingamp vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 43% chance of winning, Grenoble a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Guingamp and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Record (10 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 7 | Grenoble 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Grenoble in?
Guingamp (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Grenoble (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.10) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.85
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.21
1.47
Grenoble xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.47 for Grenoble, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 11W 11D 16L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Grenoble's form line: 9W 16D 13L from 38 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Grenoble, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.16 PPG, Grenoble on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 4W 5D 10L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.00 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Grenoble
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 9W 16D 13L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Grenoble away?
Guingamp's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.42 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Grenoble in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Guingamp
7
Draws
1
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Grenoble?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Grenoble have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 37%, Grenoble 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Guingamp) and 53% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 32% of games; Grenoble in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Guingamp's recent matches and 58% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Guingamp's recent games and 53% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Grenoble tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.