Dijon vs Annecy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dijon host Annecy at in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Annecy — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Dijon have won 0, Annecy 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dijon in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Annecy in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 75% and Annecy 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dijon 25% | Annecy 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.12 xG and Annecy 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.857 / defence 1.243 | Annecy attack 0.991 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 4 Dijon games / 38 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 26% | Draw 29% | Annecy 45%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Annecy 2.22. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 75% | Annecy 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 19 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 26% | Draw 29% | Annecy 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Dijon 1.12 / Annecy 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.857 / def 1.243 | Annecy attack 0.991 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Annecy (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Annecy xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Annecy kick off?
Dijon vs Annecy is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 March 2027.
What competition is Dijon vs Annecy part of?
Dijon vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 26% chance of winning, Annecy a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dijon and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Annecy?
Record (2 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 1 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Dijon and Annecy in?
Dijon (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L. Annecy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dijon's attack rating (0.86) and Annecy's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
26%
3.86
29%
3.50
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.66
1.54
Annecy xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
6%
18.07
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Dijon and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Dijon and 1.54 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dijon come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Dijon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Annecy in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Annecy in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Annecy have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Dijon or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Annecy in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dijon
1
Draws
1
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Annecy?
From 2 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, Annecy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Annecy 1-1 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 75%, Annecy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Dijon and 25% for Annecy.
On the defensive side: Annecy in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Annecy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dijon's games and 50% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Dijon's recent games and 25% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Annecy tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Annecy in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.