Angers 2-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Angers welcome Auxerre to Stade Raymond-Kopa. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Angers — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Angers at Stade Raymond-Kopa this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Auxerre have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Angers) versus 0.90 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Angers register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Auxerre in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Angers, 0 for Auxerre and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Auxerre trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 58% versus Auxerre 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 65% | Auxerre 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 0.92 xG and Auxerre 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.696 / defence 0.982 | Auxerre attack 1.235 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.064. Angers's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Auxerre have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 2 Angers games / 2 Auxerre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Angers 27% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 45%. Fair-value odds: Angers 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Auxerre 2.22. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Angers 70% | Auxerre 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 27% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Angers 0.92 / Auxerre 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.696 / def 0.982 | Auxerre attack 1.235 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Auxerre xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Auxerre kick off?
Angers vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Auxerre?
Angers 2 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Angers vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Auxerre part of?
Angers vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 27% chance of winning, Auxerre a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Angers and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Auxerre?
Record (2 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 2 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Angers and Auxerre in?
Angers (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Auxerre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
27%
3.76
28%
3.52
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Angers xG
Total xG
2.21
1.29
Auxerre xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
7%
13.68
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Angers and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Angers and 1.29 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Angers come into this having played 40 games, going 4W 7D 29L for 0.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 0.95 PPG from 40 outings (9W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Angers's home form reads 3W 4D 13L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 0.98 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 4W 7D 29L in their last 40 games (0.48 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 9W 11D 20L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 0.65 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Angers's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Angers
3
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Auxerre?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Auxerre have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Auxerre 3-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Angers at 75%, Auxerre at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Angers and 55% for Auxerre. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Angers's games and 60% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Angers vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Angers's matches and 55% of Auxerre's.
Do Angers and Auxerre tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers and Auxerre share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers and Auxerre finished level at 2-2 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 0.92 xG and Auxerre 1.29 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Angers beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.70 / defence 0.98 against Auxerre attack 1.24 / defence 1.10, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Angers 27% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 45%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 65%, Auxerre 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 0.95 PPG against 0.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Angers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.