Amiens 0-2 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Montpellier at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Montpellier encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host Montpellier at Stade de la Licorne in Ligue 2 (matchday 32). Kick-off is Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Amiens — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Amiens at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Montpellier stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Montpellier away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Montpellier — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Amiens have won 0, Montpellier 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2025, ended Amiens 1–1 Montpellier — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Amiens in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Montpellier in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 52% versus Montpellier 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 54% | Montpellier 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.86 xG and Montpellier 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.952 / defence 1.447 | Montpellier attack 0.677 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.174. Montpellier bring a tight defence (rating 0.752, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Amiens's projected output down. Montpellier's attack rating of 0.677 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Amiens's defence rating of 1.447 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Montpellier's projected output up. Data: built from Amiens's last 65 games and Montpellier's last 31.
Result probabilities: Amiens 26% | Draw 34% | Montpellier 40%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.90 | Draw 2.95 | Montpellier 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Montpellier at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Amiens 70% (last 10 home games) | Montpellier 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 32 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 26% | Draw 34% | Montpellier 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Amiens 0.86 / Montpellier 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.952 / def 1.447 | Montpellier attack 0.677 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Montpellier xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Montpellier FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Montpellier kick off?
Amiens vs Montpellier kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 24 April 2026 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Montpellier?
Amiens 0 - 2 Montpellier.
Where is Amiens vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Montpellier part of?
Amiens vs Montpellier is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 26% chance of winning, Montpellier a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Amiens and Montpellier will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Amiens vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Amiens's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 65 games and Montpellier's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
26%
3.90
34%
2.95
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.01
1.15
Montpellier xG
3.90
26%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
8%
12.31
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.3 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Montpellier Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Amiens and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Amiens and 1.15 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Amiens's recent record stands at 19W 10D 36L from 65 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 36L across 65 games — 0.97 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.03 PPG, Montpellier on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 13W 5D 14L from their last 32 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 6W 4D 22L across their last 32 away games, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 0.92 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
Amiens (Home) vs Montpellier (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
❓ Amiens vs Montpellier Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 19W 10D 36L in their last 65 games (1.03 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 17W 12D 36L in their last 65 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Montpellier away?
Amiens's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.38 PPG; Montpellier away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2025. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Amiens
1
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Montpellier H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Montpellier?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 0, Montpellier have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Amiens and Montpellier last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 April 2026: Amiens 0-2 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Montpellier?
Montpellier have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Montpellier see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 53%, Montpellier 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Amiens) and 28% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Amiens have failed to score in 28% of games; Montpellier in 66%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Montpellier Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Montpellier matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Amiens's recent matches and 22% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Montpellier matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Amiens's recent games and 28% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Montpellier matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Amiens's recent matches and 56% of Montpellier's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Montpellier cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Amiens 0-2 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.86 xG and Montpellier 1.15 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Amiens fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Montpellier outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.95 / defence 1.45 against Montpellier attack 0.68 / defence 0.75, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 26% | Draw 34% | Montpellier 40%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 54%, Montpellier 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Montpellier's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.03 PPG, Montpellier 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Montpellier win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Montpellier (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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