Guingamp 0-2 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Guingamp welcome Quevilly to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 December 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Quevilly — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.30 PPG, Quevilly 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Guingamp, 0 for Quevilly and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 59% versus Quevilly 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 50% | Quevilly 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 0.99 xG and Quevilly 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.925 / defence 1.098 | Quevilly attack 0.976 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 0.990. Data: 54 Guingamp games / 54 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 33% | Draw 30% | Quevilly 37%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Quevilly 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Quevilly at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Quevilly 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 33% | Draw 30% | Quevilly 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Guingamp 0.99 / Quevilly 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.925 / def 1.098 | Quevilly attack 0.976 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.150 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Quevilly xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Quevilly kick off?
Guingamp vs Quevilly kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 30 December 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Guingamp 0 - 2 Quevilly.
Where is Guingamp vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Quevilly part of?
Guingamp vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 33% chance of winning, Quevilly a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Guingamp and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Quevilly?
Record (2 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 2 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Quevilly in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Quevilly (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (0.93) and Quevilly's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
33%
3.04
30%
3.29
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.05
1.06
Quevilly xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 13.7 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.06 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 21W 18D 15L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly's form line: 16W 15D 23L from 54 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.50 PPG, Quevilly on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (11W 8D 7L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 7W 5D 14L from 26 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.98 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 21W 18D 15L in their last 54 games (1.50 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 16W 15D 23L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Quevilly away?
Guingamp's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.58 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Quevilly runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Guingamp
3
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Quevilly have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Quevilly 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Quevilly?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 65%, Quevilly 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Guingamp) and 42% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Quevilly in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Guingamp's recent matches and 31% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Guingamp's recent games and 42% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Quevilly tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Guingamp 0-2 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 0.99 xG and Quevilly 1.06 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Quevilly outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Quevilly attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 33% | Draw 30% | Quevilly 37%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 50%, Quevilly 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.50 PPG, Quevilly 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.